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If/when do you think BEVs will be 50% of annual new car sales in China, the US and EU?


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Why do discussions about the viability of EVs always boil down to range when the average distance (UK drivers at least) travel per day is 19 miles?

In this case, because next weekend's jaunt to a BTCC race is a 720 mile round trip from Northamptonshire to Dunfermline, and if I spent the same amount of money on an EV as I did on the most expensive ICE car I've ever bought, it'd most likely be a 40kWh Leaf, with a 150 mile range. This is absolutely a real world scenario.

Discussions boil down to this because people have to deal with edge cases. In my case, it's my fetish for visiting race tracks, for others it might be the dreaded visit to the in-laws who don't live locally... in your case, I don't know, but I'm reasonably sure you wouldn't buy an EV with 19 miles range (because that's all the poor people accumulate), so it seems like an irrelevant retort. But by all means, explain how a a trip from NL to North Devon would go in a 19 mile range EV, since that's all people need,

I wouldn't dispute my daily cycle mileage could be done in an EV, with perhaps one charge per month... but I can do it in on my bike, which is cheaper and cleaner than any EV, way easier to park, and on the commute, only a few minutes slower, it also helps keep this fat old man's quads and calves in a gazelle like state (albeit an overweight arthritic gazelle with a gammy knee, a smashed up ankle, two fractured heels, and a bloody terrible gait).

And for most people, the range wasn't needed. You would fill your tank once per week. You can do that in an EV, except you don't have to waste your time going to a petrol station. You plug in at your own fuel station at home, or if you don't have that ability, when you're out and about or doing your weekly shop.

No wife, no kids... no weekly shop. No lengthy stops mid road-trip. I can walk to my local shop and back in about 18 mins, which I do most days, but could integrate into my daily cycle for literally zero extra miles. There is no en-route or destination charging solution for me that's quicker than once a month at the local BP/Shell for a tank of super - that's just a fact. You can get all Alec Baldwin ABout Chargin', but you're talking 7 or 8 spaces out of 300, and a £100 fine if you're there for 2.5 hours and 1 minute - where I live. It's possible, but crucially, it's less convenient than just using a combustion engined car, or just walking/cycling.

At this point I'd like to flip the question around. Instead of 'why not buy an EV', I'd ask, 'why buy an EV'?
 
I like the idea of driving or been a passenger in an EV with autonomous controls that aid relaxation and also the chance to do other things during the morning traffic, but where I live (South Africa) and where I work (Saudi Arabia) the infrastructure is not yet viable or set up for owning an EV. The only way to charge would be at my house (in South Africa) but in Saudi living in an apartment and with my car parked at the outside of the building on the street there is no way to charge. Both countries are far behind Europe and China in EV transition and another thing is the cost to buy a new EV. In South Africa the cheapest EV you can buy is the BYD Dolphin (R550K or $30K), although the smaller Atto 1 (mini Dolphin) will apparently be launched in Sep 2025 with a price tag of about R350K ($20K) but if you want a larger sized car then you have to stretch to R800K ($45k) for a BYD Atto 3 or Volvo EX30. Even a Mini Cooper SE is also the same price. For a decent sized family car then the budget will have to stretch to R1mill ($56k) for a BYD Seal or Mini Countryman SE. A BMW iX1 starts at R1,2mill ($67k) which is the same price bracket as a E-class and BMW 5-series diesel model (E220d/520d). For that kind of money I would rather invest in a classic sports car which is guarenteed to appreciate in value and not drop like a stone in 2 years like the EV cars will.
Very interesting post. (y)

The last sentence is my main problem with EVs. That’s why I wouldn’t want to buy an expensive EV again.
Once bitten twice shy.
 
You really do need to consider scenarios outside of your bubble. You have an expensive EV, you do have access to a home charger, and you live in one of the most well prepared countries for the transition. That factually and objectively doesn't represent a large part of the car driving public, possibly even the majority.

I cycle to work everyday, I'm not going to pretend that would be a solution for everybody just because it works for me, because I understand that peoples circumstances vary, but it appears to be what you're doing.

My bubble is not just Norway, I would also say it extends to Denmark, Sweden and Finland, all 4 countries have excellent EV infrastructure. The Chinese are also making it work. The vast majority of Chinese live in apartments as well, where do you think they are charging?

I was in Turkey earlier this year, last year I was there twice and hardly saw an EV, this April the number of EV's on the road was impressive, they are building out charging infrastructure rapidly, when I went to my friends apartment everyone who has a parking space in his building has been given the opportunity to install a charger to their space.
 
Maybe because we have almost 4 times as many people living in a much smaller area. It's cramped and people live in different houses than in Norway.



No, I am implying you, like Betty, live in a fictional bubble hardly reflecting the reality of the masses.



Perfect way to end the conversation for me, right here.

A quick google search I get that 80% of the Netherlands lives in houses as opposed to apartments or flats, in Norway it's 74%. Unless houses are really different in the Netherlands I would assume most would have a garage or parking area, which would mean installing a home charger should be fairly simple.

 
Range used to be a fundamental characteristic of a car that didn't really scale with price... you could buy a base model compact hatchback in 1994 that'd go further than segment leading 'compact luxury' EVs do thirty years on (my first car was a Peugeot 106 Diesel, it's real world range was more than Tesla claim for a Model 3 Long Range). You used to have to pay more for style, luxury, and performance, but the distance you could travel between A and B wasn't really a discussion for most people.

EVs changed that, in a sense they've taken away and monetised what you used to be able to take for granted. I think that's why they seem more closely linked to wealth.
The beauty with Small Diesel cars is their range and efficiency. I remember when the 1.4 TDI Polo came out in the mid 2000s and it was then a revelation with its 4.5ltr/100km fuel thirst that could do just about 1000km on its small 45ltr tank and it was not expensive to buy. That car you could literally fill up once or twice a month to do a 50km daily trip. Nowadays the cheapest EV the Dolphin Dynamic Standard Range has a 70kw/180nm E-Motor with a 44.9kwh battery and a measly range of 340km WLTP with a pedestrian 0-100kmh time of 12.3sec. So you would have to charge the battery 4 times or more to get the same distance as that diesel Polo and you would have spent 35min per charge if using a 60kw DC charger to charge from 10% to 80% (270km range) or 23hrs per charge to full using a 240V AC charger. For R166k less I can buy a 1.0TSI Polo (R374K or $21K) which has the same 70kw/175nm output but is faster from 0-100km/h in 10.8sec and has a 187km/h top speed and has a range of 755km on its 40ltr tank. Plus I would have the added benefit of having a much bigger network of dealerships for after sales service.

For younger people in South Africa they would not be able to afford a Dolphin and would prefer a budget car that costs in the lower price brackets yet still have the convenience of many fuel stations within a 5km space bracket. With the cost of electricity going up by 20% per year and not having a reliable electricity supply most people would also be very hesitant to buy an EV.
 
Are you going to charge from a domestic socket? Most EV owners I know have a dedicated charger, with my home charger the Dolphins battery would take about 6.5 hours to charge.
 
In this case, because next weekend's jaunt to a BTCC race is a 720 mile round trip from Northamptonshire to Dunfermline, and if I spent the same amount of money on an EV as I did on the most expensive ICE car I've ever bought, it'd most likely be a 40kWh Leaf, with a 150 mile range. This is absolutely a real world scenario.

It's an extremity. The car I'm about to get is available for between £194 and £349 per month with 0% finance. The world can't stand still because people can't afford £194 per month for a BRAND NEW CAR.

*But*, you could still do it in a Nissan Leaf, albeit slowly. But it wouldn't be as slow as you think.


But by all means, explain how a a trip from NL to North Devon would go in a 19 mile range EV, since that's all people need,

People tell me a trip from the NL to North Devon doesn't work in the latest and greatest EV, despite actually doing it, so I have no hope for a Nissan Leaf.

People who don't want EVs prefer to believe their own imagined experiences of EVs rather than *actual* experiences by owners.



At this point I'd like to flip the question around. Instead of 'why not buy an EV', I'd ask, 'why buy an EV'?

They're simply a better car for 95% of driving situations, as well as feeling sportier (for those that care about such things) than most ICE cars.
 
The world can't stand still because people can't afford £194 per month for a BRAND NEW CAR.

That's quite a pivot from "people are talking smack about EVs with no experience", to "**** the poor people that don't want a sixteen grand credit agreement and can't slap down seven grand for a car they'll never own"

Most people here are not new car buyers, that's just reality. 1.2 million new car sales YTD, 4 million used car sales.

I was in Turkey earlier this year, last year I was there twice and hardly saw an EV, this April the number of EV's on the road was impressive,

25 million vehicles on the road in Turkey, less than 300,000 are EVs.. call it 1%. That's impressive? Sounds like observer bias to me.

A quick google search I get that 80% of the Netherlands lives in houses as opposed to apartments or flats, in Norway it's 74%.

If this is your methodology, then that's about a hundred million households in the bloc that couldn't install a charger. But you're alright, so f#ck them... I guess.
 
A quick google search I get that 80% of the Netherlands lives in houses as opposed to apartments or flats, in Norway it's 74%. Unless houses are really different in the Netherlands I would assume most would have a garage or parking area, which would mean installing a home charger should be fairly simple.

Yeah you assume way too much and should stop using Google as the end of all things.

80% lives in houses....as opposed to what? Sheds? Stop talking about stuff you do not know. Have you ever been here in the first place?
 
They're simply a better car for 95% of driving situations
I completely agree with you, but there's a vast difference between driving situations and circumstances for ownership which vary dramatically from a geographic and demographic perspective.

Everyone has their bubble - their microcosm - and I'm not judging anyone on this basis. Ultimately we're all just part of a deeply flawed species hurtling through space on an unimaginably tiny little piece of rock.

Owning and running a car has a personal context for every individual driven by their specific set of circumstances. It's captain obvious stuff which I know that you know as well as anybody - especially given how well travelled you are.

An EV would undeniably be "simply a better car" for 95% of my "driving situations". An i4 or a Macan E or a Taycan would be perfect from a business use perspective on a daily basis. The most mileage I've ever done driving from one customer to another in my provice is about 180km. That's extreme and an outlying situation. A daily average ranges from 70 km - to 120 km. EV perfect for the driving situation.

But from an ownership and running perspective, the proposition changes drastically. We have a pitiful EV charging infrastructure here in SA (and the whole of Africa for that matter but more on that later) so the only viable option is to install a home charger. But therein lie some significant drawbacks:
a) You're then reliant on parastatal-provided power which is notoriously unreliable and not geared for the draw required by even a modest EV fleet
b) 90% of the power generation in this country is done by fossil-fuel burning so the pious planet-saving benefits of EVs are completely outweighed by the extra fuel burn needed to generate the additional megawatts required to meet charging demand
c) If you only afford one vehicle then the EV is severely compromised when wanting to do longer journeys in a failsafe manner down here

Hence, only the wealthiest here in SA own and run EVs for their "95% of driving situations" because they can afford to put in very expensive solar charging, inverter and battery systems in their households. And it has to be one helluva setup if you're going to charge an EV off of that.
I have solar at my house but its generation and storage capacity is wholly insufficient to support a wallbox EV charger. I would have to triple its capacity at considerable cost - just to charge an EV - whilst it's perfectly adequate for current household demand.

So, now you have the much higher purchase price of the EV + the cost of infrastructure at home + the higher insurance cost + the higher depreciation and when it's all added up the value proposition for the EV is way off compared to my good ol' "dirty" and expediently suitable 320d.

In terms of long distance driving, getting back to if you can only afford one car, then an EV in SA makes a long distance journey from the interior to the coast unacceptably risky. I wouldn't drive from Joburg to Cape Town in an EV. It's a distance of around 1400 km across vast open tracts with very limited charging station availability. An EV is immediately ruled out for the 5% of my driving situations. Actually a bit more as I drive long distances on a regular basis i.e. > 500 km in one direction.

It's pretty straightforward to infer that EVs can work for some but ICE still works for everyone.

KiwiRob cites Scandinavian and northern European countries in his example of EV viability but in reality this is a proportionally small geographic and population section with a proportionally high GDP and wealth (national and personal). EVs work there. If I lived there, I'd own an EV. No brainer.

But if EV limitations apply to South Africa - which is 2.7 times larger than Scandinavia's biggest country, Sweden - then these limitations increase exponentially for all the countries combined in the world's 2nd largest continent. Africa is nearly 33 times bigger than Scandinavia, is far poorer with a population 50 times larger.

So, in a global context, EVs remain definitively less viable than ICE vehicles.
 
That's quite a pivot from "people are talking smack about EVs with no experience", to "**** the poor people that don't want a sixteen grand credit agreement and can't slap down seven grand for a car they'll never own"

Most people here are not new car buyers, that's just reality. 1.2 million new car sales YTD, 4 million used car sales.

I believe I just saw that in The Netherlands, roughly on average, people have like 18k to spend on a (for them) new car. Everything else is too expensive.

KiwiRob cites Scandinavian and northern European countries in his example of EV viability but in reality this is a proportionally small geographic and population section with a proportionally high GDP and wealth (national and personal). EVs work there. If I lived there, I'd own an EV. No brainer.

I've never been to Norway (will do that soon though), but in The Netherlands you really have to think if EV suits your life. Over here it's not even that straight forward (unless you perhaps live I a quaint little town outside of the Randstad). But with the charger speeds ever increasing and the range ever increasing too, it's getting better by the day.
 
Yeah you assume way too much and should stop using Google as the end of all things.

80% lives in houses....as opposed to what? Sheds? Stop talking about stuff you do not know. Have you ever been here in the first place?

You do know the difference between a house and an apartment? I've been to the Netherlands many times. Maybe you should have clicked the link, 80% live in a house, the rest live in flats or apartments.

1754999822431.webp
 
That's quite a pivot from "people are talking smack about EVs with no experience", to "**** the poor people that don't want a sixteen grand credit agreement and can't slap down seven grand for a car they'll never own"

Most people here are not new car buyers, that's just reality. 1.2 million new car sales YTD, 4 million used car sales.



25 million vehicles on the road in Turkey, less than 300,000 are EVs.. call it 1%. That's impressive? Sounds like observer bias to me.



If this is your methodology, then that's about a hundred million households in the bloc that couldn't install a charger. But you're alright, so f#ck them... I guess.

I've been going to Turkey for work since 2021, I saw very few EV's until late 2024, then boom all of a sudden the number of EV's dramatically increased and charging infrastructure is popping up all over the place.

This article tracks what I have seen when I've been there.

Between 2022 and 2023, Türkiye witnessed a notable increase in EV market share from 1% to 6%, and by 2024, this growth continued by reaching double digits with an impressive 10% EV sales share – a notable increase year-over-year.


Those 100m households who live in apartments might have their own designed parking space, that parking space probably has a space where you could install a charger or the building might have communal chargers which every resident has access to. It looks like you're just throwing up barriers for the sake of an argument. I get it some people might not be able to have an EV of their own, if they need a vehicle they could rent one, borrow from friends or family, IMO the writing is on the wall Europe will be an EV market, in all probability before the EU bans the sales of ICE vehicles.
 
That's quite a pivot from "people are talking smack about EVs with no experience", to "**** the poor people that don't want a sixteen grand credit agreement and can't slap down seven grand for a car they'll never own"

But you are the one who pivoted it with this post.
Till then it was a discussion between Big Sam and Swiss bob (someone who claims to have a Taycan) about charging experience.


ps. The irony here that I am taking pleasure in, is @KiwiRob and @Big Sam/Betty were big time EV detractor/sceptic that I had to argue with all the time. So I look forward to the day when Matski is the GCF EV flag bearer.
 
This is an interesting EV car that could appeal to the masses with it's cute appearance and low price.

This is the Cherry QQ Ice Cream and it starts in China at only 29990 Yuan or about $4700.

It comes in 3 trims, Pudding, Cone and Sundae and has a NEDC range of 120km to 170km.

Chery-QQ-Ice-Cream-2023-EV-Electric-Car-Family-Mini-Car-70km-205km-Used.webp
download (1).webp
chery-qq-ice-cream-01-1.webp
download (2).webp
chery-qq-ice-cream-01a.webp
Screenshot_20250812-234912~2.webp
Screenshot_20250812-234918~2.webp
Screenshot_20250812-234925~2.webp
Screenshot_20250812-234929~2.webp
Screenshot_20250812-234904~2.webp
 
You do know the difference between a house and an apartment? I've been to the Netherlands many times. Maybe you should have clicked the link, 80% live in a house, the rest live in flats or apartments.

1754999822431.webp

An average house has no private parking, and no home charger.

1755036345105.webp


You live in the house, you park in public space.
For the rest no offense, but you're completely ignorant and I don't see the point in discussing this with you. Stick to your own situation and keep your completely useless graphs out of here..

So f'ing typical....
 
That's quite a pivot from "people are talking smack about EVs with no experience", to "**** the poor people that don't want a sixteen grand credit agreement and can't slap down seven grand for a car they'll never own"

As Sunny pointed out, I wasn't discussing EVs in the wider context. I was replying to SwissBob about the extra time needed to charge compared with filling a diesel tank, but your strawman response took me down a different path as to the viability of EVs in general.

As the last few pages of this thread demonstrate, convincing people that the fastest charging, biggest range EVs work is difficult enough, so I'm not going to waste my time trying to convince people that a 10-year-old 40 kWh Nissan Leaf is the answer, and that wasn't even the discussion I was having.

It's always fascinating that people talk about EVs as one, homogenous entity, yet you wouldn't do that in a discussion about petrol cars. Imagine going into a discussion about the handling capabilities of a 911 to ask, "how am I supposed to fit my two dogs in the boot?" A 911 is not the same as a Volvo estate, and a Porsche EV is not the same as a Nissan Leaf. So, just because *some* EVs are not suitable, it doesn't then mean EVs in general are not suitable, which is the accusation thrown around.



I completely agree with you, but there's a vast difference between driving situations and circumstances for ownership which vary dramatically from a geographic and demographic perspective.

Everyone has their bubble - their microcosm - and I'm not judging anyone on this basis. Ultimately we're all just part of a deeply flawed species hurtling through space on an unimaginably tiny little piece of rock.

Owning and running a car has a personal context for every individual driven by their specific set of circumstances. It's captain obvious stuff which I know that you know as well as anybody - especially given how well travelled you are.

An EV would undeniably be "simply a better car" for 95% of my "driving situations". An i4 or a Macan E or a Taycan would be perfect from a business use perspective on a daily basis. The most mileage I've ever done driving from one customer to another in my provice is about 180km. That's extreme and an outlying situation. A daily average ranges from 70 km - to 120 km. EV perfect for the driving situation.

But from an ownership and running perspective, the proposition changes drastically. We have a pitiful EV charging infrastructure here in SA (and the whole of Africa for that matter but more on that later) so the only viable option is to install a home charger. But therein lie some significant drawbacks:
a) You're then reliant on parastatal-provided power which is notoriously unreliable and not geared for the draw required by even a modest EV fleet
b) 90% of the power generation in this country is done by fossil-fuel burning so the pious planet-saving benefits of EVs are completely outweighed by the extra fuel burn needed to generate the additional megawatts required to meet charging demand
c) If you only afford one vehicle then the EV is severely compromised when wanting to do longer journeys in a failsafe manner down here

Hence, only the wealthiest here in SA own and run EVs for their "95% of driving situations" because they can afford to put in very expensive solar charging, inverter and battery systems in their households. And it has to be one helluva setup if you're going to charge an EV off of that.
I have solar at my house but its generation and storage capacity is wholly insufficient to support a wallbox EV charger. I would have to triple its capacity at considerable cost - just to charge an EV - whilst it's perfectly adequate for current household demand.

So, now you have the much higher purchase price of the EV + the cost of infrastructure at home + the higher insurance cost + the higher depreciation and when it's all added up the value proposition for the EV is way off compared to my good ol' "dirty" and expediently suitable 320d.

In terms of long distance driving, getting back to if you can only afford one car, then an EV in SA makes a long distance journey from the interior to the coast unacceptably risky. I wouldn't drive from Joburg to Cape Town in an EV. It's a distance of around 1400 km across vast open tracts with very limited charging station availability. An EV is immediately ruled out for the 5% of my driving situations. Actually a bit more as I drive long distances on a regular basis i.e. > 500 km in one direction.

It's pretty straightforward to infer that EVs can work for some but ICE still works for everyone.

KiwiRob cites Scandinavian and northern European countries in his example of EV viability but in reality this is a proportionally small geographic and population section with a proportionally high GDP and wealth (national and personal). EVs work there. If I lived there, I'd own an EV. No brainer.

But if EV limitations apply to South Africa - which is 2.7 times larger than Scandinavia's biggest country, Sweden - then these limitations increase exponentially for all the countries combined in the world's 2nd largest continent. Africa is nearly 33 times bigger than Scandinavia, is far poorer with a population 50 times larger.

So, in a global context, EVs remain definitively less viable than ICE vehicles.

There's nothing I can disagree with here, but like I say above, this is part of a bigger argument about the suitability of EVs across the globe rather than the ability of the *right* EV to compete with an ICE over a long distance, which is what I was actually discussing in the first place.

As it happens, we leave our accommodation in North Devon tomorrow morning and are heading in one go to the Netherlands via the Channel Tunnel. I topped up the Macan for 15 minutes while I popped to the shops tonight, which means we don't have to stop for another 330 km, which will get us to the South west of London...just in time for a late lunch, where we will charge while we eat. That will get us to Northern France. And that's the biggest thing you learn when driving an EV...you can charge fuel up while doing other things, in which case it rarely feels like you're wasting time.


In The Netherlands you really have to think if EV suits your life. Over here it's not even that straight forward (unless you perhaps live I a quaint little town outside of the Randstad). But with the charger speeds ever increasing and the range ever increasing too, it's getting better by the day.

I really don't recognise this situation at all. If someone living in the Netherlands finds living with an EV difficult then they really don't understand the best strategy. People need to stop thinking with their ICE head on; that is, stopping to charge like they're filling a fuel tank.



But you are one the pivoted it with this post.
Till then it was a discussion between Big Sam and Swiss bob (someone who claims to have a Taycan) about charging experience.

Exactly.


ps. The irony here that I am taking pleasure in, is @KiwiRob and @Big Sam/Betty were big time EV detractor/sceptic that I had to argue with all the time. So I look forward to the day when Matski is the GCF EV flag bearer.

Yes, I admit, until 2022 I didn't get EVs. The 330e Touring PHEV was the gateway for me. I loved the way it drove in electric mode. Then I drove the Taycan, and did a bit of research into how I could drive one for journeys that would make up 95% of the km I'd be behind the wheel. I've never looked back and now I bore people to death about them.


An average house has no private parking, and no home charger.

I've used my home charger four times in the last 12 months.
 
At this point I'd like to flip the question around. Instead of 'why not buy an EV', I'd ask, 'why buy an EV'?
Good question, which I can’t answer any more TBH.

However.
Compared to the standard downsized 3 banger, NVH on small EV are miles ahead.
They’re also much nippier.

Those EVs might make sense.

But I wouldn’t prefer an EQS to a S-Class TBH.
 

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