I'm not an expert, but I'll react. Because it's what I'm wondering also.
When Newey says that it's capable of F1 lap times with F1 driver behind the steering wheel, I doubt he is comparing it to current cars. I think the most likely scenario is that he is thinking of F1 cars for the year of production of RB17, which according to him is 2026. The same year when a major F1 regulation change is set to be introduced.
People say that 2026 lap times will be comparable with current cars, but IDK... I'd be surprised if that was the case. Maybe in subsequent seasons they could improve and get on that level. But for 2026, I expect them to be slower. And maybe Newey knows this too and that's why he feels confident enough to make that claim.
Let's first look at the 2026 F1 rule change:
- MGU-H is removed and MGU-K is beefed up from 120 kW (163 PS) to 350 kW (476 PS).
- Total power output remains at about 1,000 PS. Originally the ICE was supposed to be 420 kW (571 PS) only, but there's been a lot of changes to the regulations and this might have been revised also. I also have hard time believing they would nerf the ICE so much, considering the minimum weight limit of this unit got increased for 2026! More on that later.
- Fuel limit per race is 100 kg (down from 110 kg), with considerable amount allocated solely for generating energy for MGU-K.
- The battery capacity will increase (min. weight limit goes from 20 kg to 35 kg). But it remains to be seen how will fuel/energy management change and if lifting & coasting becomes more prevalent.
- The power unit is projected to get about 30 kg heavier despite the loss of MGU-H (uprated components + increased min. weight limit for certain ICE components).
- FIA wants to encourage teams to produce lighter cars by slashing 40 or 50 kg from the current minimum weight of 798 kg (incl. 80 kg driver). I think many teams won't be able to get close.
- The new cars will be 10 cm narrower with about 20 cm shorter wheelbase and will use 16" wheels instead of 18". That means less drag but possibly also less downforce.
First of all, 919 did reach the level of F1 that one time while being (kind of) a two seater itself... Or rather it has evolved from rules which mandated two seats. The driver sits very much offset to the left with the space next to him being occupied by the battery.
For all we know, RB17 could use the staggered seating concept to make the cockpit as narrow as possible (think Caparo T1 or Praga Bohema to lesser extent). I get your sentiment, but there's not doubt the RB17, with enclosed wheels and active aero, will be way less draggy than any modern F1 car.
I happen to think the 919 Evo has just slightly more downforce than RB17. But Red Bull may be able to use its downforce more effectively with the active suspension. And it might have the edge in low speed corners due to its blown diffuser.
The question is, what tires will have Michelin cooked up for RB17. We know they made soft compound for the Porsche, but that's a race car. Often time you see these track day specials compromise outright grip in favor of consistent behavior and being able to quickly get up to optimal temperature (499P Modificata). IDK if RBR will go the same route.
On power unit alone, I think RB17 is very comparable. But just like the 919 Evo, it doesn't need to abide by set DRS zones and can cheat their way through the lap by continually adjusting its aero and ride height to get the best possible mix of downforce and drag. The downforce cap will limit it somewhat in the fast corners, though.
Also, keep in mind that we don't yet how much it will weigh. It could be close to 900 kg or it could get much lighter than that. I bet Newey has learned his lesson with announcing the 1,000 kg weight target for Valkyrie and then blowing by it with more than 350 kg over. The 900 kg could just be very comfortable goal for them with some margin.
But yeah, it's a very intriguing comparison, these three cars. I can't wait to see them put it to test.
F1 2026
weight: 678 kg (best case scenario within min. weight limit)
energy recovery: 9 MJ/lap
ICE: 571 PS??? (2023: ~850 PS)
MGU-K: 476 PS
total: ~1,000 PS
919 Evo
weight: 849 kg
energy recovery: 8.5 MJ/lap (Spa)
ICE: 720 PS
MGU-K: 440 PS
total: 1,160 PS
downforce: ~1,750 kg at 240 kph (my uneducated estimate)
RB17
weight <900 kg
ICE: 1,000 PS
MGU-K: 200 PS
total: 1,200 PS
downforce: 1,700 kg at 240 kph