The End of the Automotive Industry

[TheNewBATMAN]

Nah, bullshit.

The German big three will soldier on and rule the markets. Rolex and Patek not only survived digital watch era, even smartwatch era won't bother them.

This is BMW's big plan :

www.automobilemag.com/news/shock-value-12-new-electric-bmws-due-2025/

 

[Wunderkind]

There will always be those who want their own set of wheels because they want flexibility, privacy, and not having to share their ride with anyone.

 

[Mick Briesgau]

There will always be those who want their own set of wheels because they want flexibility, privacy, and not having to share their ride with anyone.

Those will,without any doubt, be there. But, have you thought about the legislator? I'm sure that in most EU states, it will be forbidden to drive your car yourself in a few decades. If not earlier, depends on how fast autonomous driving is establishing itself. Or it's "priced" = taxation so heavily, that most can't afford it anymore.

 

[Wunderkind]

Those will,without any doubt, be there. But, have you thought about the legislator? I'm sure that in most EU states, it will be forbidden to drive your car yourself in a few decades. If not earlier, depends on how fast autonomous driving is establishing itself. Or it's "priced" = taxation so heavily, that most can't afford it anymore.

Yes, I agree the law and tax code will play a large part in the acceptance/adoption and pace of the roll-out of electric/hydrogen-powered vehicles and AD-vehicles. I will want my own autonomously driven car if I am barred from driving by law as I just can't stand sitting into a car that was previously occupied by someone with bad body odour.

 

[KiwiRob]

There will always be those who want their own set of wheels because they want flexibility, privacy, and not having to share their ride with anyone.

Or simply don’t want to sit in seats thousands of others have farted in.

I tried a car sharing service once, one of my distributors personal car was in for service, he belonged to a car sharing service, the first car was clean and tidy, when we finished the meeting and went to use it again someone had taken it, we found another car about 500m away this car was disgusting, used condoms, empty bottles, it stank of cum and booze. If people are happy with this fine, they can use a car sharing service but I will never not own a car.

 

[KiwiRob]

Those will,without any doubt, be there. But, have you thought about the legislator? I'm sure that in most EU states, it will be forbidden to drive your car yourself in a few decades. If not earlier, depends on how fast autonomous driving is establishing itself. Or it's "priced" = taxation so heavily, that most can't afford it anymore.

That maybe the case for city dwellers but a lot of us in Europe don’t like in a city, this would be a really bad idea for rural areas, it would hasten there demise even further.

 

[Mick Briesgau]

That maybe the case for city dwellers but a lot of us in Europe don’t like in a city, this would be a really bad idea for rural areas, it would hasten there demise even further.

Agree on the 2nd part, but since when do EU politician care?

 

[EnI]

Sure the market for private, individual customers will still be there. But the vast majority of the "personal mobility units" - I don't prefer to call them cars because they won't be cars as we know them today - will be sold to the fleet , corporate customers: the "mobility providers".

IMHO owning your own "unit" won't be economical anymore. But people with strong desire for owning a unit, and those with enough money will still be able to own one. Or several units. Therefore strong car brands will survive. Owning eg. a Rolls-Royce or a Ferrari unit will provide a certain status, sure.

And in the transitional period a driver will be able to switch off the AD function in certain situations. While later on AD will be unswitchable and mandatory, and people will be able to drive the "units" (some brands will provide such feature) in the "controlled environment" . eg. racing tracks, driving polygons etc. I can even foresee "amusement parks" - a grid of famous roads & streets remade - where driving will be allowed under strict rules. Otherwise there will be VR driving simulators (games) available everywhere to everyone. Even using one - i.e. "driving" - while being driven in a mobility unit. Yes, today that sounds absurd but I can see that becoming a reality very soon.

And don't forget the flying (personal) mobility units ... Only sky's the limit!

 

[Zonda]

I doubt very much, transportation will be cheaper in this new world, for our personal/individual mobility needs. I'm sure you and I will be paying not a penny less

Good point, history agrees with you.

 

[Mick Briesgau]

Sure the market for private, individual customers will still be there. But the vast majority of the "personal mobility units" - I don't prefer to call them cars because they won't be cars as we know them today - will be sold to the fleet , corporate customers: the "mobility providers".

IMHO owning your own "unit" won't be economical anymore. But people with strong desire for owning a unit, and those with enough money will still be able to own one. Or several units. Therefore strong car brands will survive. Owning eg. a Rolls-Royce or a Ferrari unit will provide a certain status, sure.

And in the transitional period a driver will be able to switch off the AD function in certain situations. While later on AD will be unswitchable and mandatory, and people will be able to drive the "units" (some brands will provide such feature) in the "controlled environment" . eg. racing tracks, driving polygons etc. I can even foresee "amusement parks" - a grid of famous roads & streets remade - where driving will be allowed under strict rules. Otherwise there will be VR driving simulators (games) available everywhere to everyone. Even using one - i.e. "driving" - while being driven in a mobility unit. Yes, today that sounds absurd but I can see that becoming a reality very soon.

And don't forget the flying (personal) mobility units ... Only sky's the limit!

I'm all for those flying mobility units.

 

[klier]

It's a fact this will happen, so better get ready instead of scared. Our grandkids will not be able to understand people drove cars themselves.

Only part I don't believe is, is people sharing cars. That will not happen for the people who make enough to have their own car.

^ what I keep asking myself; who wants this?

People sitting on their stinking horses were saying the exact same thing when they saw their first ever car (which likely was a Mercedes Benz).

 

[Mick Briesgau]

It's a fact this will happen, so better get ready instead of scared. Our grandkids will not be able to understand people drove cars themselves.

Only part I don't believe is, is people sharing cars. That will not happen for the people who make enough to have their own car.



People sitting on their stinking horses were saying the exact same thing when they saw their first ever car (which likely was a Mercedes Benz).

Horses don't stink but for the rest, you're probably right.

 

[KiwiRob]

Agree on the 2nd part, but since when do EU politician care?

Norwegian ones do, it’s govt policy to stop urban drift and to keep the regions alive and viable.

 

[Sunny]

One thing Lutz won't mention - all this was supposed to happen long ago. As a child (in the 80s), I remember reading how flying cars and self driving cars will be here at the turn of the century. Shit happened. Cause the auto industry incumbents (including Lutz) were happy polishing the same piece of turd over and over, year after year for 100 years - new year? hurray! here is a new model with another 20hp and another 2mpg and some shiny bauble. And not just that they were lazy, some even actively worked to impede and kill progress (again, including Lutz here). And now they face disruption from outside forces, they cry. Some will adopt and thrive, most won't/can't adopt and will wither.

 

[EnI]

All those "disruptors from outside" don't care much about the labor, do they? Not only jobs in transport will be gone but most jobs in automotive industry too. Mostly due to robotization and AI. And reduced car production. Even support staff will be replaced by AI bots. I can even see bots producing the content .

So, what will humans do then? Twitting and shopping all day long? What kind of jobs will still be there?

AI is set to replace a handful of skilled jobs, while robots (also controlled by AI) are going to replace manual labor.

The progress & the disruption are not all rosey at all.

 

[KiwiRob]

All those "disruptors from outside" don't care much about the labor, do they? Not only jobs in transport will be gone but most jobs in automotive industry too. Mostly due to robotization and AI. And reduced car production. Even support staff will be replaced by AI bots. I can even see bots producing the content .

So, what will humans do then? Twitting and shopping all day long? What kind of jobs will still be there?

AI is set to replace a handful of skilled jobs, while robots (also controlled by AI) are going to replace manual labor.

The progress & the disruption are not all rosey at all.

A lot of humans, especially those living in Europe will end up on a guaranteed basic monthly income paid for by the govt. Switzerland is thinking about it, and the Finns have also suggested it.

Swiss government proposes paying everyone £1,700 a month | Daily Mail Online

 

[Mick Briesgau]

A lot of humans, especially those living in Europe will end up on a guaranteed basic monthly income paid for by the govt. Switzerland is thinking about it, and the Finns have also suggested it.

Swiss government proposes paying everyone £1,700 a month | Daily Mail Online

Who's going to pay for this BS? Some politicians seem to have forgotten, that you must earn money before you can spend it. These kind of plans and behaviour always remind me of antique Rome, just before it was ended by it's own decadence.

 

[EnI]

Exactly ... Where will the government get all the money for UBI?

Via taxes from Google, Uber, Facebook, Amazon etc? Sure ... those companies are know for their aggressive "tax optimization" - read: avoiding to pay taxes. While various start-ups won't even generate profit and be viable to taxation.

By taxing AI and robots? Yap, that sounds "plausible", lol. Taxing them on what merit?

And currently only rich countries are wealthy enough for UBI - but that can change quite quickly.

IMHO states will have quite serious fiscal issues in the new era when various services (and AI etc) will be based and offered from other countries.

What will eg. Switzerland get from Facebook since the company is registered as US company (or even some tax heaven based company) - and all the "trade" is done on the servers in US, and services are provided from US etc.

But yes ... in the future humans could end up being to reduced to consumers & shoppers - and even this could be forced by AI suggestions (via all sorts of subliminal advertising) what to buy & where. So, we will become semi-automated professional shoppers?

I can even imagine Eni-bot posting here in 2030 ... while I'll be VR "shopping in Dubai" ... from my armchair in my livingroom. Oh, dear!

 

[KiwiRob]

Who's going to pay for this BS? Some politicians seem to have forgotten, that you must earn money before you can spend it. These kind of plans and behaviour always remind me of antique Rome, just before it was ended by it's own decadence.

If you take away jobs what will people do, how will they live, large corporations will be made to pay tax, I think the aggressive tax avoidance measures that companies like what Apple, Google & Amazon practice will come to an end, these guys have to remember that without an income people won't be able to buy there products. If that income is derived from there taxation they would be foolish to avoid paying.

 

[Busty]

^ what I keep asking myself; who wants this? Or am I already a dinosaurus with my selfdrive-in-my-own-car-fetish.

Here's another dinosaur . And there are a lot out there.

I don't share the overall scepticism and I don't think that one of us in here will have to live Lutz's dystopia. Mobility will change, and new players will enter the market. New markets will arise. But car enthusiasts will still have products to be fascinated by and to operate themselves.

Nah, bullshit.

The German big three will soldier on and rule the markets. Rolex and Patek not only survived digital watch era, even smartwatch era won't bother them.

This is BMW's big plan :

www.automobilemag.com/news/shock-value-12-new-electric-bmws-due-2025/

BMW's even bigger plan goes far beyond new vehicles. Their sustainability efforts have always covered a broad array of hardware, software, and service products and have mostly PREdefined boundaries for those efforts. (The latter is, by the way, something many others in the industry did not do.) Those boundaries are part of the reason they never built a Model S competitor.
I predict that in the next 10 years BMW will also establish sophisticated car sharing offerings that will be highly attractive even for aficionados.