Concept [Official] BMW Vision Next 100


I very much doubt that self-driving cars will be the standard by 2040. The complexity of implementing this is monumental. Sure, high-end cars like the S-Class will have the ability to drive themselves and interact with other road users in isolation, but to think this tech will be standard on a low-end car is fanciful. They thought in the '60s we'd be all riding around in self-driving and even flying cars, yet largely nothing has changed. We still have 99% ICE cars which are firmly on the ground.

How many people on here have actually driven a car with something simple like radar cruise and automatic braking? It's a very odd experience and not something I particularly like. If people think humans are going to be happy sat on a busy motorway in a fully autonomous car, eyes away from the windscreen and doing work on their computer, then they're rather deluded.

It seems these manufacturers are getting carried away with a "look at what technology can do" mentality without even the slightest thought how this is going to work in reality.
 
Millennial: "I'm looking for a vehicle that allows me to do a whole lot of pointless shit whilst not having to drive - oh and it must be able to corner like its on rails."

Grumpy old bastard: "Get on a fûcking train man!"
 
We're arguing with unknown variables. Everything what people say is true, the self driving parts as well as the autonomous parts. We'll probably end up halfway in 20-30 years time.
 
I very much doubt that self-driving cars will be the standard by 2040. The complexity of implementing this is monumental. Sure, high-end cars like the S-Class will have the ability to drive themselves and interact with other road users in isolation, but to think this tech will be standard on a low-end car is fanciful. They thought in the '60s we'd be all riding around in self-driving and even flying cars, yet largely nothing has changed. We still have 99% ICE cars which are firmly on the ground.

How many people on here have actually driven a car with something simple like radar cruise and automatic braking? It's a very odd experience and not something I particularly like. If people think humans are going to be happy sat on a busy motorway in a fully autonomous car, eyes away from the windscreen and doing work on their computer, then they're rather deluded.

It seems these manufacturers are getting carried away with a "look at what technology can do" mentality without even the slightest thought how this is going to work in reality.

I agree with you, but I think the difference now compared to the flying car visions of the '60's, is that self driving cars only really need the software to work - and the pace of software development is ridiculously high compared to that of the automobile previously. I think we could easily all be in autonomous vehicles within say, 50 years... but I agree the market won't accept it at that rate.

edited for typo
 
Doubting the future is coming shortly ... Look at Olivetti, Kodak & Nokia how that played out. ;)

Olivetti thought electric typewriter was the future, not PC. Kodak thought digital photography is just a fashion for tech geeks. Nokia thought smartphone was too complex & too expensive to build.

Denying the future = suicide. Simple as that.

When the shift happens - and the shift happens instantly after years or decades of slow progress - and you're not there and ready ... then be red to say goodbye. Either you die off or you have to be acquired by / merged to some more ready player.

OK, not that it will happen in 10 years. That's 1.5 generation in automotive language. But in 25 yers, say in 2040, be sure autonomous driving & EVs will be STANDARD. OK, there will be PHEVs too - for some specific regions & environments. ICEs? I guess they will be still used for machinery & trucks etc - but even then in PHEV form.

No, the Russians are not coming ... but the future is. :)
 
EnI, no one here is denying the future - promise.

But, based on BMW's recent effort to mark their centenary, it appears that they have little regard for the past and, more tellingly, the present-to-near-future.

Right now, BMW's centenary commemoration makes me boreseaous.
 
I very much doubt that self-driving cars will be the standard by 2040. The complexity of implementing this is monumental. Sure, high-end cars like the S-Class will have the ability to drive themselves and interact with other road users in isolation, but to think this tech will be standard on a low-end car is fanciful. They thought in the '60s we'd be all riding around in self-driving and even flying cars, yet largely nothing has changed. We still have 99% ICE cars which are firmly on the ground.

How many people on here have actually driven a car with something simple like radar cruise and automatic braking? It's a very odd experience and not something I particularly like. If people think humans are going to be happy sat on a busy motorway in a fully autonomous car, eyes away from the windscreen and doing work on their computer, then they're rather deluded.

It seems these manufacturers are getting carried away with a "look at what technology can do" mentality without even the slightest thought how this is going to work in reality.
Lots of logical points Betty ....but you are looking at this from a traditional market perspective. The push for autonomous vehicles is mostly not consumer-driven, this is mostly being directed by a relatively small group of Global Technocrats which is why autonomous vehicles were discussed at The World Economic Forum in January as a way to increase efficiency and sustainability.

.
 
@Martin

The problem is that the BMW past = motoring, petroling, driving pleasure, joy of driving, ultimate driving machine. And we (still) don't know if that's going to be available in the future as well. Celebrating the motoring & driving ... and emphasizing that in communication ... is not wise right now. Especially when the company is about to reposition itself for the future.


@Rob

It's not about New Order and / or any other semi-conspiracy theory. It's not that anybody is pushing the tech and the solutions. It's all market driven. Not by the current market but the future one. And future markets (especially the demand side) is very analytically & thoroughly researched via various consumer behavior researches etc. And so is trend detection. Trend hunting is blooming. And by gathering such info the industry is motivated to supply & provide certain tech & product to the FUTURE customers.
When only researching & analyzing current market situation (especially the demand) you don't get such data. It's all about trends.

....

Millennials are very conscious about free time - and they don't want to spend any extra time for errands & activities that can be automated or properly managed via IT. And to Mellenials communication & entertainment is of much greater value than driving itself.

Autonomous driving brings the best point of public transport to the individual private transport: you don't have to bother about driving anymore, making commuting much less stressful ... while enjoying all the comfort & privacy of individual transport.

Few years ago Uber sounded like a very obnoxious idea - a redundant alternative to regular taxi services that nobody really needs. What about today? ;)

Now imagine autonomous car fleets providing commuting services: either taxi-like ones or car-sharing ones. It's the future.

As said many times: also the relationship with cars will change. Shifting from owning to sharing. Personal mobility solutions. Even within public transport.

Sure privately owned cars will still have a manual modes - incl. Sport modes. But I guess they won't work in all areas.

....

Also there's still a moral dilemma when it comes to autonomous driving. How to program the auto pilot to react in lose-lose situations. Who to protect first & best: the passengers in the car, or the pedestrian / cyclist outside. Imagine the situation: a heavy truck is approaching from the opposite direction; a young mother with a baby in a trolley is walking down the pavement; a little girl just cycles on the road ... a collision is inevitable. How to program the algorithm for such case. Should our car run into a little girl; should it steer into a woman with a baby in a trolley; or should it steer into a heavy truck. So, who should the algorithm endanger or even kill. How to write such algorithm at all? There's moral dilemma since priorities would have to be set: whose health & life is more valuable.

And IMHO that's the dilemma that can't be overcome that easily. And therefore that's IMHO the biggest obstacle for autonomous driving - not the limitation of the tech. Sensors, radars, cameras, processors, batteries, superfast internet, gesture control UI etc will be ready in few years. But the moral dilemma won't be resolved by then IMHO.
 
@Martin

The problem is that the BMW past = motoring, petroling, driving pleasure, joy of driving, ultimate driving machine. And we (still) don't know if that's going to be available in the future as well. Celebrating the motoring & driving ... and emphasizing that in communication ... is not wise right now. Especially when the company is about to reposition itself for the future.


@Rob

It's not about New Order and / or any other semi-conspiracy theory. It's not that anybody is pushing the tech and the solutions. It's all market driven. Not by the current market but the future one. And future markets (especially the demand side) is very analytically & thoroughly researched via various consumer behavior researches etc. And so is trend detection. Trend hunting is blooming. And by gathering such info the industry is motivated to supply & provide certain tech & product to the FUTURE customers.
When only researching & analyzing current market situation (especially the demand) you don't get such data. It's all about trends.

....

Millennials are very conscious about free time - and they don't want to spend any extra time for errands & activities that can be automated or properly managed via IT. And to Mellenials communication & entertainment is of much greater value than driving itself.

Autonomous driving brings the best point of public transport to the individual private transport: you don't have to bother about driving anymore, making commuting much less stressful ... while enjoying all the comfort & privacy of individual transport.

Few years ago Uber sounded like a very obnoxious idea - a redundant alternative to regular taxi services that nobody really needs. What about today? ;)

Now imagine autonomous car fleets providing commuting services: either taxi-like ones or car-sharing ones. It's the future.

As said many times: also the relationship with cars will change. Shifting from owning to sharing. Personal mobility solutions. Even within public transport.

Sure privately owned cars will still have a manual modes - incl. Sport modes. But I guess they won't work in all areas.

....

Also there's still a moral dilemma when it comes to autonomous driving. How to program the auto pilot to react in lose-lose situations. Who to protect first & best: the passengers in the car, or the pedestrian / cyclist outside. Imagine the situation: a heavy truck is approaching from the opposite direction; a young mother with a baby in a trolley is walking down the pavement; a little girl just cycles on the road ... a collision is inevitable. How to program the algorithm for such case. Should our car run into a little girl; should it steer into a woman with a baby in a trolley; or should it steer into a heavy truck. So, who should the algorithm endanger or even kill. How to write such algorithm at all? There's moral dilemma since priorities would have to be set: whose health & life is more valuable.

And IMHO that's the dilemma that can't be overcome that easily. And therefore that's IMHO the biggest obstacle for autonomous driving - not the limitation of the tech. Sensors, radars, cameras, processors, batteries, superfast internet, gesture control UI etc will be ready in few years. But the moral dilemma won't be resolved by then IMHO.

Situations like this arising are the reason why fully autonomous vehicles are a long way off. The legal ramifications are huge. And why is a collision inevitable? I thought the whole point of these vehicles are that they prevent collisions?

You're kidding yourself if you think this scenario is going to happen within your lifetime.
 
I could imagine the fleet market being a driver for this - for people who spend large parts of their working life trawling up and down motorways. Next week I'll have at least one day where in 7 hours, I'll be driving for 6, just to see one customer. I don't mind it, but I know my boss hates it, he'd rather flick the car over to auto and get on with something else.
 
Situations like this arising are the reason why fully autonomous vehicles are a long way off. The legal ramifications are huge. And why is a collision inevitable? I thought the whole point of these vehicles are that they prevent collisions?

You're kidding yourself if you think this scenario is going to happen within your lifetime.


Many moral dilemmas have been solved. Even such hard cases as aborts, euthanasia, capital punishment etc. So, be sure traffic accident related dilemmas (in connection to autonomous driving) will be overcome too.

Sure not all collisions are avoidable. Since pedestrian & cyclists & motorists will still be "autonomous" themselves, not driven by an autopilot. Sure cars & trucks & buses etc with autonomous driving will prevent collisions with other autonomous vehicles. But collisions due to careless pedestrians, cyclists, motorists etc will still be inevitable in some cases. Since those mentioned parties won't be connected into the transport internet and won't be able to communicate with automated traffic. Unless AR helmets / glasses will be obligatory when engaging in traffic - even as a pedestrian. ;) And perhaps kids will have to be put on leash to be fully controlled in the traffic, lol. :D

But the legislature can be written in such manner (and algorithms programmed in such way) that the most vulnerable party is protected first. I.E. in the case I mentioned: the car steers into truck since in that case people on board have the best chances to survive. Unless there are 3 babies and a pregnant (with triplets!) woman on board. Then I guess little girl on a bike will have to go first. Sorry, lass.

IMHO all can be agreed - how to prioritize, systematize, using "triage" - and accordingly set protocols & algorithms. Just like humans do IRL. Why not written that in an algorithm?


My lifetime ... Hm ... it can end just next hour ... or in 60+ years. So, I don't know what will happen in my lifetime since it's not known to me how long will it last. ;)

Personally I expect first 100% autonomous cars by 2020; becoming fully affordable till 2030. And by 2040 such cars will be standard for sure. At least in some countries.

Today we are in year 2016 ... just check the tech levels of cars from 25 years ago (that being early 1990s), and compared them to the today's levels. Much can happen in 25 years. And it will.
 
In the meantime ... the race is very much one ... fresh news:

Technology| Fri Mar 11, 2016 11:18am EST
Related: TECH, DEALS

GM buys Cruise Automation to speed self-driving car strategy

http://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-to-acquire-autonomous-vehicle-technology-developer-1457704950



Ford forms 'smart mobility' division
Nathan Bomey, USA TODAY 9:52 a.m. EST March 11, 2016

  • Ford launches Smart Mobility unit as auto makers gear up for shifts in consumer behavior

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/1...s-smart-mobility-llc-invest-more-services.htm


Carmakers just can afford to stall. Otherwise they will turn into "casing makers" for Google and / or Apple.
 

BMW

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, abbreviated as BMW is a German multinational manufacturer of luxury vehicles and motorcycles headquartered in Munich, Bavaria, Germany. The company was founded in 1916 as a manufacturer of aircraft engines, which it produced from 1917 to 1918 and again from 1933 to 1945.
Official website: BMW (Global), BMW (USA)

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